“The house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes — the house takes you.” — Danny Ocean, “Ocean’s Eleven”
Longtime readers of this column know that if they see a quote to start out from a casino/heist/Vegas movie, it can only mean one thing:
The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday, March 15.
Vegas is our first stop the season at an intermediate track. And for a whole lot of guys in the field who find themselves in an early-season hole, arriving in the Nevada desert is a welcome relief. Guys like Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain and Josh Berry all have wins on intermediates in the past, and all need a huge boost to save their seasons.
Christopher Bell Wins Cup Pole at Las Vegas
Another storyline to watch is Hendrick Motorsports coming off an unusually quiet race at Phoenix Raceway last week. Outside of Kyle Larson finishing on the podium, William Byron had a solid, but less-than-stellar top-10 finish, and we won’t even talk about how disgustingly bad it went for Chase Elliott and Anthony Alfredo.
Chevrolet itself has struggled pretty badly to open the year, with only 173 laps led to this point in the season, lagging far behind Ford and Toyota. The Bowtie bunch need a huge weekend from their flagship team, there is no doubt about that.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500
| Right on the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Ryan Blaney: 73.1 points scored | Chastain: -6.2 points scored |
| Blaney +475 to win | Daniel Suarez: -13.1 points scored |
| Ryan Preece: 31 points scored | Austin Cindric: -23.1 points scored |
Fantasy Forecast
Kyle Larson, $11,000
Easy choice this week for number one overall.
Larson is quite possibly the most talented and successful driver on this track style, and Vegas is no exception. He has two wins and a staggering average finish of 7.9 in the Next Gen era.
The winner of this race, if it isn’t Larson himself, is going to have to go through the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion to get it.
Larson rolls off from the fifth starting spot, and I absolutely think he’ll be there inside the top five when the checkered flag flies.
Ryan Blaney, $9,700
Last week’s winner checks in this week as not the favorite, but close.
Make no mistake: Blaney can win here. But he’s not been as impressive as Larson over the years at the track. He actually has an absolutely appalling Next Gen career average finish of 23.9 at Vegas. That’s in Cody Ware territory.
If he can keep his nose clean, though, Blaney has plenty of speed to bring home top-10 points.
Bubba Wallace, $8,200
Wallace has been super solid to start the year, and it shows.
He currently sits in the top five in points, and in this new era of points racing, that’s huge. Wallace may also be a sneaky dark horse to win this race on Sunday.
Last season, he ran a career-high 1,100 laps inside the top 10 at intermediate tracks. He also very nearly won at Homestead-Miami Speedway and Kansas Speedway last season.
Either way, expect the other 23XI Racing car to be a contender all day long.
Josh Berry, $7,700
Finally, after a very long and difficult 2025 and early 2026 campaign, Berry returns to the site of his first ever Cup win.
I do not think Berry will repeat the magic this year, but I do expect him to have a much better weekend than he has had in a while. I mean, sure, he qualified in 32nd. And yeah, his practice speeds have been pretty mediocre.
But I just feel Berry is going to put together another good — but not as great as last year — run this week.
Ty Gibbs, $7,400
Y’all, I think Gibbs might be running around with a chip on his shoulder since Chris Gabehart (via court documents) and the internet questioned his effort as of late.
Up to Speed: Has Chris Gabehart Lawsuit Lit a Fire Under Ty Gibbs?
That could be the missing ingredient for him to finally breakthrough and win a race in the Cup Series.
Last week, the No. 54 nearly won the whole thing at Phoenix. This week, he was the absolute far-and-away fastest on the long run in practice, and he snagged another podium starting position for the race.
If the odds are right, I may just roll the dice on Mr. Gibbs here.
Austin Dillon, $5,800
Alright, so I definitely picked Dillon at first because I was out of money.
But then I started looking at his stats from practice and how he’s been doing at Vegas in the Next Gen car and well … I think he might be a smart pick, truthfully.
Dillon’s career average finish is better than Blaney’s and one spot behind Wallace’s. He also starts right outside the top 10 in 11th. Remember, track position is king, and if Dillon can hold it, that’s a really good return on investment in my book.
Top Bet and Dark Horses
Kyle Larson +400 to win
Guys, Larson is probably going to win this weekend, and the list of those who can stop him is pretty short. I mean, Christopher Bell knows how hard it is to beat him here. Denny Hamlin has, but the speed in the No. 11 camp has yet to arrive. Same for Larson’s HMS teammates Elliott and Byron. Like Ocean said, the house always wins, and Larson is absolutely the house this week.
Dark Horse of the Week: Ty Gibbs +1000 to win
Gibbs is quite possibly the most polarizing figure in the sport right now. And in his quest to beat the “nepo baby” allegations, I think he might’ve found something within himself. He has some real momentum for the first time in a long time, and if he can get rolling, we all know what he can do. Watch out for Coach’s grandson this week. I know I will.
