”Time is a flat circle; everything we will ever do we will do over and over again — forever” — HBO’s True Detective
If there’s anything to be gleaned from the above quote to what’s going on these days in the NASCAR Cup Series, it’s that Tyler Reddick continues to win over and over again. The series finds itself at its oldest “flat circle” this weekend, so there’s that.
That’s right, Martinsville Speedway and its famous hot dogs are on the menu, and the good news for the field is the fact that Reddick happens to be atrocious here. His career average finish here in this current Next Gen era is 20.9. So, it goes without saying, I wouldn’t pick him.
Through the Gears: NASCAR Betting Odds at Martinsville
Heck, he said himself that if he wins this week, the world may just end. Though, I wouldn’t get to your underground bunkers just yet, dear reader.
I think this week, you have to look at two guys:
Ryan Blaney, who has emerged as a modern-day Jeff Gordon at the “paperclip” as of late. Secondly, I’d look to NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver Chase Elliott. Both have won here in the past. Both have outstanding performance records at the track, also. I wouldn’t try to get both though, so let me help you decide between the two biggest names in our sport today.
Fantasy/Betting Recap: 2026 Goodyear 400
| Right on the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Tyler Reddick: 100.2 points scored | Kyle Busch: 8.4 points scored |
| Brad Keselowski: 98.5 points scored | Chase Elliott: 19.3 points scored |
| Erik Jones: 48 points scored |
Fantasy Forecast
William Byron $10,000
Can you believe this is the first appearance of Willy B on the forecast this season? Yeah, me neither. I know I talked about Blaney and Elliott in the intro, but I’ll get there in a moment.
Hendrick Motorsports is no doubt in the middle of a bit of a slump. Their cars have been almost uncharacteristically awful at times this early into the 2026 season, and though it is likely due to the body style change to the Camaro.
The most successful organization in the history of our sport needs a shot in the arm, and historically speaking, the guy in the No. 24 Chevrolet—whether it be Byron or his Hall of Fame predecessor—usually answers that call.
I think that much like in this race last season, Byron will dominate it from outside pole and quickly win the opening stages.
I do think the next entry on this list is his biggest threat though.
Chase Elliott $9,700
As good as Blaney has been here in recent years, I had to move with Elliott because A) I think their stats are pretty equal. B) Elliott has been the standard bearer for Hendrick thus far.
He has been getting closer and closer to winning here in the Next Gen car over the past few seasons, including his injury riddled one back in 2023. In fact, he’s not finished outside the top five at all here since that season.
Elliott also was consistently one of the top five fastest drivers in Saturday’s practice sessions, regardless of long run or short run. If his team, namely crew chief Alan Gustafson, can get it together this week, the No. 9 will be as dangerous as he’s ever been here.
Denny Hamlin Wins Cup Pole at Martinsville
Bubba Wallace $8,300
I said a long time ago, in the early days of me writing this column that I would always think of Wallace as a threat at Martinsville, and that hasn’t changed.
However, he’s rocked my faith in him at the track a bit as of late. He usually runs really strong in the spring race, with finishes of ninth, fourth and third in his last three spring starts.
His fall record here is slightly questionable though, and that makes me nervous.
As long as he sticks to the trends he’s currently been working, I feel good about this selection.
Ryan Preece $8,100
Another short track favorite of mine, Preece checks in this week starting from outside the top 15. This comes after he looked just a little bit slower than both his teammates at Darlington Raceway last weekend, though he was still solid.
I think that flips around a bit this week.
I expect him to outpace both of his teammates simply because he’s the best of the three at the track this weekend. Since rejoining the Cup Series back in 2023, Preece has built a strong record at Martinsville, boasting an 11.6 average finish, good enough for ninth overall in that time frame.
It’s also worth remembering how he won The Clash at Bowman-Gray Stadium in February. Look for the No. 60 on the podium this weekend.
Carson Hocevar $7,200
I had so much fun watching Hocevar last weekend at Darlington. He truly is a throwback to the time when I first fell in love with racing, and I think it makes him different than many other drivers in the field today.
While his record at Martinsville kind of stinks —he’s never finished better than 17th— that throwback mentality serves you well at Martinsville just like it does at Darlington.
I think Hocevar takes another step towards weekly contention at this historic old short track and walks away with a somewhat sneaky top-ten finish. He’s also going to make some guys mad along the way.
Shane Van Gisbergen $6,000
Yep, you’re reading that right. You’re also reading it right that everyone’s favorite Kiwi is starting fifth on Sunday.
I truly believe that SVG is sneaky good at short tracks. Remember how much of a factor he was at Bowman-Gray? I do. Remember how he hung around Phoenix Raceway a few weeks ago and almost snagged a top ten?
I think he’s going to win an oval race, either this year or next. As for this week though, I think he grabs another surprise top ten.
Top Bet and Dark Horse of the Week
Chase Elliott +800 to win
Like I said in my pick breakdown, I just feel like he’s been inching closer and closer to winning here again with each passing year. He’s been the standard bearer for his organization this season in what’s been a weird year for Chevrolet in general. I think Byron is probably going to have the best car, but somehow, some way, Elliott will have the trophy leaving the Commonwealth Sunday night.
Ryan Preece +2200 to win
One of these days, Preece is going to pick up a win for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing. I feel like with this being one of his best tracks, it very well could be here. He had the speed and know how to take the field to the woodshed at Bowman-Gray, and he very well could this weekend. He’s just going to have to do what he’s always done though. He’s going to have to pull himself out of the doldrums of mid pack to find his way to the front, and if he can, he’ll have a real shot to win.
