“She’s deadly man, and she could really rip your world apart. Mind over matter, the beauty is there but a beast is at the heart.” – Hall & Oates, Maneater
I’m convinced the classic Hall & Oates jam “Maneater” is 100% about Darlington Raceway (aka The Lady in Black), and no one can tell me otherwise. This classic speedway has been known to certainly chew up NASCAR Cup Series drivers and spit them out over its decades on the calendar, and this Sunday, March 22, is sure to be no exception.
There are two huge new factors at play that may make this particular race at Darlington one to remember. NASCAR is rolling out the 750-horsepower package and a new tire compound for the first time in a long time, which means that this will be a war of attrition and skill in equal measure.
Through the Gears: NASCAR Betting Odds for Darlington
As I’ve said many times, the track is a driver’s track. He who can find the correct balance of tire management, speed and equipment conservation will be the one to take home this crown.
Let me simplify this for you: Don’t pick rookies, drivers in year two or maybe even year three guys. Stick with seasoned vets and former champions. Names like Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano are sure things for this one.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2026 Pennzoil 400
| Right on the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Kyle Larson: 55.9 points scored | Josh Berry: 11.9 points scored |
| Ty Gibbs: 40.2 points scored | Larson: +400 to win |
| Bubba Wallace: 31.8 points scored |
Fantasy Forecast
Tyler Reddick, $9,500
If you think Reddick has cooled off the last couple of weeks, I’d make the argument you were right.
That is, until Saturday, when the No. 45 Toyota Camry won the pole for Sunday’s race. He was also wickedly fast in practice too, as his was the fastest car in the session over 25-lap averages. Reddick also nearly won this race back in 2023 before a run-in with Chris Buescher ruined that for him.
It’s got all the right ingredients for an old fashioned Reddick butt-kicking, leading a lot of laps, winning from the pole and winding up with his unbelievable fourth victory of 2026.
Cashing in on this opportunity is a no-brainer.
Tyler Reddick Wins Pole, 23XI Sweeps Front Row at Darlington
Chase Elliott, $9,300
Going into this weekend, I was very skeptical about Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports and in particular, Elliott. Heck, on Through the Gears, I vehemently advised that bettors and fantasy owners avoid the most successful team in the sport for a few weeks.
Coming out of practice, I appeared to be right, as Elliott could only muster up a top-35 lap time and he looked painfully slow on the long run. Not to mention that it took the team three tries to pass inspection, which resulted in the loss of pit selection and its car chief.
Coming out of qualifying though, I’ve changed my tune a bit.
No. 9 actually looked bad fast for his two laps, and it was made even more evident by a top-three starting position for a team that usually qualifies really well.
I admit, though, I don’t quite know what to make of Elliott based on that. I want to think that track position is king and that there is no one better at saving his stuff and fighting through attrition. I don’t want to say Elliott is a winner either, but I do think a top 10 is possible.
Chris Buescher, $8,300
In typical Buescher fashion, the driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang is off to a quiet, efficient start to 2026. He makes his first appearance of the season on the forecast.
He was another guy, like Reddick, who was fast as the runs in practice went longer, and I feel like that may be a key to winning this week. He also will start in sixth, his best qualifying effort of the season.
The Texan also has had some good runs here historically, particularly as of late. For instance, he’s not finished outside the top 10 at Darlington since the spring race of 2024. Like I said, the Lady in Black is a working man’s racetrack, one that requires a guy who can grind his way to the front.
Buescher is the working man this week, and he works his way to a top-five run on Sunday.
Kyle Busch, $7,800
OK, let me take a deep breath here.
I think that KFB is going to still somehow find his way into The Chase in 2026, no matter how improbable that may be. I also think that he will start that climb at one of his best racetracks.
Busch has three straight top-five finishes at Darlington and of course is a former winner there back in the COT days. Plus, not to drill this into your head, dear reader, but experience is another key to victory.
I do fear, though, that maybe he’s cursed when I pick him, and I say it’s a smart pick, but pick at your own risk.
Brad Keselowski, $7,600
Despite facing some serious early season adversity in 2026, Keselowski has put together some pretty good runs so far.
Now as he returns to the site of his most recent win, I’m almost sure that he can do it again this week. It’ll be important for this team to have good results on pit road and no issues mechanically on the car to do that though.
As much faith as I have in the 2012 Cup champion, I think there’s a good chance he can put it on the podium for a huge points day.
Erik Jones, $7,500
I hope you’re loving this trio of veterans to end this lineup.
I love Jones at Darlington. It just fits together like peanut butter and jelly, really. Only one other driver on this list can say that they’ve won at Darlington in the Next Gen car. It doesn’t matter whether it’s the spring or the fall, he is going to be a factor.
Even if he somehow doesn’t finish in the top 10 Sunday, I fully believe Jones is going to be in the top 15. Considering his starting spot, that will get you some serious fantasy points.
Top Bet and Dark Horses
Keselowski +700 to win
I just got a feeling about No. 6 this weekend. His style is the most perfect fit for the track, he’s got the experience and the most recent win of his career came here. The package is also a game changer that leans on experience, and outside of Denny Hamlin and Busch, there is no one who has more than Bad Brad.
Dark Horse of the Week: Busch +4000 to win
The words dark horse and Kyle Busch don’t really belong together for my generation of race fans, but this is the world we live in today. My argument for him this weekend is the same as my argument for Keselowski. The biggest difference is the performance in the teams, and that will be the deciding factor. The package plays into KFB’s favor too, and I think we can all agree we’d love to see him win one more time.
