The final laps of Sunday’s (March 8) Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway turned into a showdown between Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell, two drivers who have had more than their fair share of success at the one-mile short track in the desert. In the end, it was Blaney who held off Bell to add a second straight Phoenix checkered flag to his racing resume.
With Kevin Harvick now a few years into retirement, who among the full-time Cup drivers has inherited the crown of the NASCAR Cup Series’ present-day Cactus King? Is it Blaney, Bell or somebody else? Let’s break down the numbers.
The Big 6: Questions Answered After Ryan Blaney Snapped Tyler Reddick’s Win Streak at Phoenix
In total, 20 drivers have started all nine Phoenix Cup races in the Next Gen era (2022-present). Of those 20, six have won at least one of those races: Bell, Blaney, Joey Logano, Chase Briscoe, William Byron and Ross Chastain. Now, let’s take those six drivers and compare their Next Gen performance at Phoenix.
Based on the data above, it is readily apparent that Blaney is the new sheriff in town at Phoenix.
Briscoe has the lowest average finish of the drivers listed above. To be fair, six of those nine starts came in the twilight years of Stewart-Haas Racing when the organization was nowhere near its peak. Chastain has struggled since his win in the 2023 finale, currently riding a streak of four straight finishes outside the top 10. Byron’s stats are weighed down a bit by a 33rd-place showing in last year’s championship race due to a cut tire in the waning laps.
That leaves the three two-time Phoenix winners of the Next Gen era. Logano might arguably be the most clutch of the trio as his 2022 and 2024 wins helped clinch Cup championships. But in the other seven starts, the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford has five finishes outside the top 10, and two of those were outside the top 30. In other words, Logano has been very boom or bust at Phoenix in the Next Gen car. As for Bell, he is the closest to Blaney statistically, but two finishes outside the top 20 and the lack of a fall race win hold him back from taking the crown.
So, what makes Blaney the best driver at Phoenix right now? In addition to his two wins, Blaney has finished in the top five in all but one Phoenix Next Gen race. The one time he did not is in last year’s Phoenix spring race when he fell to 28th due to an engine failure. Even then, Blaney was still a contender, leading 22 laps and earning 13 stage points before his mechanical issues.
Furthermore, Blaney’s average finish of 5.2 during the nine-race stretch towers above the rest of the field, over three spots better than Kyle Larson’s 8.6; however, Larson lacks a Phoenix Next Gen win. Blaney has also accumulated 396 points in that span, 67 points higher than Bell at 329.
So, now that we’ve established Blaney as the present-day Cactus King, how does he compare to Harvick? Let’s put the two drivers’ numbers side-by-side.
Bearing in mind that this data spans different Cup cars and Phoenix track configurations from over the years, it still seems like Blaney has a ways to go to catch Harvick for desert superiority. In particular, Harvick’s nine wins continue to loom large, five ahead of Jimmie Johnson and Logano for most all-time. Perhaps the most impressive stat on this chart is that Harvick never had a DNF in 42 Phoenix starts. Between that and an average finish of 8.5, Happy Harvick had a remarkable run of success at Phoenix and still retains his title of all-time Cactus King.
The Underdog House: Erik Jones Shakes Off Slow Start to Score Top 10 Finish at Phoenix
Higher Attrition Than Normal
Sunday’s race featured an unusually high volume of yellow flags and wrecked cars by Phoenix standards. To paint the full picture, let’s look at the caution data for every Phoenix Cup race since the advent of stage cautions in 2017.
Overall, the caution came out 12 times, tying the track record with the 2020 spring race. The field ran behind the pace car for 86 of the 312 laps, breaking the track record of 73 set on two previous occasions: last year’s spring race and the 2020 spring race.
There were also fewer cars taking the checkered flag than in most recent years. Sunday saw just 27 cars running at the finish and 10 DNFs. That ties the fewest finishers in a Phoenix Next Gen race as well as the second-most DNFs behind last year’s spring race.
The culprit for this trend is the tire wear and blown tires experienced by several drivers on Sunday. It will be interesting to see if Goodyear makes any adjustments to the tire compound ahead of the fall race in the Chase.
Blaney definitely has the best ‘stache. I’m having trouble getting used to Logano’s bald head, though. I knew Harvick was good at Phoenix, but I didn’t realize the numbers were so impressive.