In 1996, country music superstar Alan Jackson released “Who’s Cheatin’ You,” a song whose accompanying music video featured several NASCAR drivers, including Bill Elliott, Dale Jarrett, Rusty Wallace and Ernie Irvan.
Three weeks into the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season, the question fans are asking isn’t who’s cheating who, but rather, “Who’s chasing who?”
Due to the nature of the early-season schedule, we don’t really know yet.
Of course, in the standings, everyone is chasing Tyler Reddick, who became the first driver to ever open a season with three straight wins. That is a huge accomplishment and a testament to the rise of 23XI Racing and Reddick’s absurd talent as a driver.
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But those three wins came at a pair of drafting tracks in Daytona International Speedway and EchoPark Speedway and road course Circuit of the Americas, two track types that only make up 10 of the 36 races on the Cup calendar.
And while Reddick and the No. 45 team likely won’t fall off a cliff beginning this weekend at Phoenix Raceway, the wildcard start to the season in regard to track types makes it difficult to pinpoint which teams truly have the most pace to start the season.
Defending series champion Kyle Larson is 15th in the standings. His Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman in 36th and will remain somewhere in that vicinity after Phoenix, as he will miss this weekend’s race.
Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell are 23rd and 24th in points, respectively, with another JGR driver in Chase Briscoe down in 27th.
Even with a new Chase format that does not guarantee a playoff berth with a win, there’s no reason for any of those drivers, sans potentially Bowman, to panic yet. It’d be shocking if any of them failed to make The Chase.
On the flip side, Spire Motorsports’ Daniel Suarez, Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger and Front Row Motorsports’ Zane Smith are all currently in the 16-driver Chase field. Everyone loves an underdog, but it’s hard to see a reality where any of those three drivers make The Chase.
Therein lies the problem with NASCAR’s decision to schedule Daytona, Atlanta and COTA back-to-back-to-back: while an entertaining early season slate, it does little to set the stage for the season. Of course, all three races still count toward the championship, especially this year, but each race almost felt like a standalone event.
Phoenix kicks a stretch of races I’ve been looking forward to all offseason. These races are the meat of the schedule.
Phoenix is the first traditional oval on the calendar, and Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a cookie-cutter mile-and-a-half. Darlington Raceway is … well, whatever the heck Darlington is (along with Kyle Petty‘s personal hellscape; look it up, it’s hilarious). Martinsville Speedway, a half-mile short track, is NASCAR’s bread and butter.
Those four races before the Easter break will tell each driver and team where they truly sit from a speed and execution standpoint and will begin to shed light on what the actual points situation looks like.
That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to glean from the first three weeks of action, however. Reddick will be a title threat this season. His 23XI teammate Bubba Wallace looks like he could be a top five or top 10 threat throughout the 2026 campaign as well.
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Chase Elliott has been his usual consistent self so far, Ryan Blaney has been quick on long runs (shocker) and Carson Hocevar seems to have even more pace than he did a season ago.
But aside from that, there aren’t many takeaways that can be proclaimed with much authority thus far. Over each of the next four weeks, however, we’ll learn more about how the season will shake out.
Over the next 14 races, only two, Talladega Superspeedway and Watkins Glen International, aren’t at traditional, non-drafting ovals (or triangles, in the case of Pocono Raceway).
By the time the Cup Series rolls into Naval Base Coronado on June 21, we’ll know who’s chasing who, who’s being true and who don’t even care anymore.
